Optimism Rose Dramatically in October

11/5/2018

The Fishlinger Optimism Index™, a breakthrough measurement of public opinion centered on Americans’ optimism about the future from the Fishlinger Center for Public Policy Research at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, went from 54 in September to 64 in October 2018. In anticipation of a “Blue Wave” by the Democrats and renewed enthusiasm for the Republicans, the Optimism index shot up from its September lows.

However, the data collection period occurred largely before the stock market correction, bomb threats, and synagogue killings, a period when the stock market hit highs, unemployment hit new lows, and Judge Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice. All these events, as well as the outcome of the midterm congressional elections, will undoubtedly affect November results.

The turnout for the midterm congressional elections is anticipated to be high for both Democrats and Republicans. The Fishlinger Center projects that the turnout among those eligible to vote could hit the mid-forties.

All individual dimensions of the index went up except National Leadership during this period.

The Fishlinger Optimism Index™ is more than an economic measurement. It is built on opinion data for public officials, social and political issues, beliefs about the United States’ place in the world, and a series of value statements dealing with individuals’ feelings of success and security, as well as from ratings of government policies and officials.

In measuring national leadership, Fishlinger Optimism Index™ assesses public expectations for the effectiveness of federal policy and quality of governance both domestically and in global affairs. Social progress examines the potential for progressive reform. Personal prosperity explores individuals’ sense of achievement and economic stability.

Survey Methodology
In this study, the Fishlinger Center conducted online national surveys focusing on political issues in the United States. The fieldwork for the poll was conducted using a blended national panel form Survey Sampling, Inc. Interviews were conducted October 1-29, 2018. The credibility interval for 1,000 respondents is plus or minus four percentage points. The credibility interval is larger for subgroups and for differences between polls.

In addition to credibility interval, the polls are subject to other potential sources of error including, but not limited to coverage and measurement error. Data were rim weighted to match the national population on age, sex, Hispanic origin and race. Question wording and topline results are available at fishlingercenter@mountsaintvincent.edu.

About the Fishlinger Center for Public Policy 
The Fishlinger Center for Public Policy Research opened in February 2015 at the University of Mount Saint Vincent. The Center conducts deep and broad studies of public opinion on key public policy concerns through independent and objective research conducted by students, faculty, and other members of the academic community.

By providing a forum for discourse that can stimulate intelligent dialog about issues that deeply affect all Americans, the Center illustrates and enhances the relationship between the work of the College and the common good.

James F. Donius, Ph.D., director of the Fishlinger Center for Public Policy Research at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, is available to speak to members of the press about the survey, the Fishlinger Optimism Index™, and the Center. To arrange an interview, or for more information about the study, please contact Public Relations at publicrelations@mountsaintvincent.edu.

About the University of Mount Saint Vincent
Founded in 1847 by the Sisters of Charity, the University of Mount Saint Vincent offers nationally recognized liberal arts education and a select array of professional fields of study on a landmark campus overlooking the Hudson River. Committed to the education of the whole person, and enriched by the unparalleled cultural, educational, and career opportunities of New York City, the College equips students with the knowledge, skills, and experiences necessary for lives of achievement, professional accomplishment and leadership in the 21st century.